From my good friend Wayne Thompson, Walden Mortgage, Lexington, KY

Last Week in Review

Heigh Ho, Heigh Ho, It’s Off to Work We Go! If ever there was a week to sing that old Disney? song, it was last week when Americans received some good employment news. Despite a worse-than-expected ADP National Employment report – which isn’t known for its accuracy – the Initial Jobless Claims report came in on Thursday with some good news. According to the report, Americans filing for unemployment benefits came in at 550,000, versus the 580,000 expected. In addition, the four-week moving average declined for the sixth consecutive week.
The markets received more evidence of an improving job market on Friday. The Labor Department reported 247,000 jobs lost in July versus economists’ expectations of 328,000 jobs lost. As you can see in the chart below, this is down pretty sharply from June’s lower, revised 443,000 jobs lost and the smallest loss since August 2008. Even better, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.4%, from the prior month’s reading of 9.5%. This reading broke a streak of 9 straight monthly increases and gave a lot of credibility to the good news in the job market.

The employment news is good news for the economy because it may signal that the worst recession in our lifetime could be ending. That said, the Obama Administration agreed on Friday that we’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, but cautioned that the country still has a lot further to go and that the US will not have a true recovery as long as job losses continue.
A stronger job market can also signal improvement in the housing market. We saw indication of that last week as the Pending Home Sales Index came in at 3.6%, which was much better than the 0.7% that was expected. The National Association of Realtors also reported that Pending Home Sales rose in June for the fifth straight month, fueled by low home loan rates and bargain home prices. Overall, the news was a strong indication that the housing market may be looking to improve.

Overall, the economic news helped boost Stocks, as the Dow gained 114 points to close the week at its highest level of the year. The economic news and increase in Stocks last week, however, put pressure on Bonds, which ended the week lower, putting upward pressure on home loan rates.

Forecast for the Week

The Retail Sales Report comes out this Thursday, giving us our first picture of consumer spending for the month of July. Last month’s report came in better than expectations at 0.6%, but that number was slightly skewed by the high gasoline station sales. This month’s reading is expected to come in at 0.4%. With this report, we will see, among other things, how much impact the government’s Cash for Clunkers program has had on the retail picture.
Another big mover this week could be the Consumer Price Index, which is due out on Friday. Last month’s report showed that the cost of living in the US rose more than forecast, due largely to a jump in energy costs. Overall, core inflation remained in the Fed’s comfort zone, but that didn’t stop inflation concerns from becoming a hot topic. And for good reason – when lenders see changes in inflation or even anticipate a rise, they may increase their interest rates to make up for the losses they expect. With concerns already out there, lenders and investors will be watching this report closely.
In addition to these reports, the Treasury’s record auction of $75 Billion worth of 3-year and 10-year Notes could shake things up. The markets will definitely be paying attention to how the auction is received. Why? Let’s look at it this way, the flood of auctions lately has been like an all-you-can-eat buffet of Treasury securities – as fast as the offerings can be bought, the Treasury keeps refilling the bowls with a seemingly endless amount of supply. In the end, investor appetites may slow down as more and more supply just keeps on coming. Should that happen, higher rates may be needed to induce further buying. I will keep an eye on this situation this week and keep you posted.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds traded sharply lower due to strong Pending Home Sales, the announcement of another Treasury auction, and better-than-expected employment news.

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.